Opportunities
Risk register
The structural risks that determine outcomes, named plainly and reviewed on a schedule. This page exists because official communications tend to omit exactly these items, and their omission is what makes accurate figures suspect by association.
- severeMacro / FXTrend: StableReviewed 1 Aug 2026
Currency convertibility and repatriation
The ability to convert local revenue into hard currency and repatriate it is the single largest determinant of realised returns, and it is set by rules that change without a fixed schedule. Retention thresholds, surrender requirements and access to the interbank market have all moved materially within the past three years.
What would change this
A published, stable retention regime held unchanged across a full budget cycle, and an interbank market that clears at a rate the parallel market does not materially diverge from.
- severeInfrastructureTrend: StableReviewed 1 Aug 2026
Electricity supply reliability
Generation capacity is below demand and dependent on hydrology at Kariba and on ageing thermal plant. Load-shedding is a planning assumption rather than a contingency, and it is the constraint most frequently cited in industry surveys.
What would change this
New generation reaching commercial operation, or a wheeling framework that lets industrial users contract directly with independent producers at scale.
- highRegulatoryTrend: StableReviewed 1 Aug 2026
Policy predictability
Material changes to export retention, beneficiation requirements and monetary arrangements have been introduced with short notice and immediate effect. The issue for an investor is not the direction of any single measure but the inability to underwrite a ten-year project against a rule set that has changed within each of the past several years.
What would change this
Statutory notice periods for changes affecting existing projects, and grandfathering of terms for licensed investments.
- highMacro / FiscalTrend: StableReviewed 1 Aug 2026
External debt and arrears
Outstanding arrears to multilateral and bilateral creditors block access to concessional finance. Published external debt figures exclude some quasi-fiscal liabilities, so the recorded stock understates the obligation.
What would change this
A credible arrears clearance pathway with creditor buy-in, following a completed programme track record.
- highInformationTrend: WorseningReviewed 1 Aug 2026
Data quality and continuity
Several core series — consumer price inflation among them — break at currency regime changes or stop being published. Others, such as tourist arrivals, have not been updated for years. This is a risk in its own right: decisions get made against numbers that are stale, discontinuous, or measuring something other than what their label suggests.
What would change this
Continuous publication of CPI across regime changes with documented methodology, and restoration of lapsed series.
- elevatedTradeTrend: StableReviewed 1 Aug 2026
Export leakage outside formal channels
Mirror-statistics comparisons persistently indicate that recorded mineral exports understate actual outflows. This distorts trade balance, reserve accumulation and sector-level output figures simultaneously.
What would change this
Convergence between Zimbabwean export records and partner-country import records.
- elevatedMarketTrend: StableReviewed 1 Aug 2026
Buyer and counterparty concentration
Several export categories depend on a small number of buyers, and several sectors depend on a single state counterparty for offtake or transmission. Concentration of this kind rarely appears in official framing but determines downside in most realistic scenarios.
What would change this
Diversification of export destinations and the emergence of creditworthy private offtakers.